2008 Electoral College Tie
Posted by Mike Blake Tue, 23 Sep 2008 02:46:00 GMT
If the election were held today, here’s the result.
(Analysis of each swing state is below.)
Swing States:
Colorado
Barely Obama’s, and historically Republican, but holding the Democratic convention here turned out to be brilliant. McCain didn’t even get it back during the GOP convention, so I think Obama wins Colorado.
Ohio
McCain’s most brilliant move is the Sarah Palin pick. The Hockey Mom with the folksy accent wins over the suburban Ohio family and keeps Ohio a red state.
Pennsylvania
Democrat in the last four elections, and should stay that way since McCain couldn’t manage to take the lead here even during the post convention bounce.
Florida
No need for Katherine Harris’s votes this time. McCain has a good lead and should keep the Republican trend.
Nevada
Another Republican state, and McCain is hanging on tough here, although a bit closer than Florida, it will likely stay red.
New Hampshire
For every other swing state, I’m predicting a win for the candidate with a slight lead in the polls, and backing it up with historical precedence in that state. That strategy leaves New Hampshire open. Since McCain fared better here in the primaries than Obama did, and he has a slight lead today in this University of New Hampshire poll , I gave it to him. Plus that leaves us with the fascinating result of an Electoral College tie.
Virginia
Although Virgina was tied for a while, McCain seems to be pulling away. And Republican margins of victory in prior elections have been quite large.
Wisconsin
If you border more than one Great Lake, you’re an Obama state. Even taking advantage of delegate strippers won’t change that.
